Windows to beat Apple in smartphones: IDC

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June 6, 2012, 2:53 p.m. EDT
Windows to beat Apple in smartphones: IDC
Microsoft mobile OS seen behind only Google’s Android by 2016

By Benjamin Pimentel, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Microsoft Corp. may be lagging rivals when it comes to the smartphones these days, but a new forecast released Wednesday predicts that the company’s Windows mobile software will overtake Apple Inc.’s iOS on such devices in four years.

Microsoft’s Windows Phone/Windows Mobile operating system’s share of the smartphone market is projected to grow from 5.2% this year to 19.2% in 2016, when it is seen becoming a distant second to Google Inc.’s Android platform, according to an IDC forecast.

On the other hand, Apple’s AAPL +1.53% iOS is seen falling from No. 2 this year, with 20.5% total share, to No. 3 with 19% in 2016, IDC said. “Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will gain share despite a slow start,” the research firm added.

Those gains will come mainly from the strength of its partner Nokia Corp. NOK +4.35% “in key emerging markets,” IDC said, although the industry researcher said the projection assumes “Nokia’s foothold in emerging markets is maintained.”

IDC also said it expects Apple’s operating system will “continue its impressive run thanks to strong iPhone 4S momentum in North America, Western Europe and Asia/Pacific, specifically China, this year.”

“Growth will moderate over the five-year forecast given the large installed base Apple has accumulated, which means more of its addressable market will be on replacement cycles,” the firm said.

“Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape,” IDC analyst Ramon Llamas said in a statement. “Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile-operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/Windows Mobile).”

Benjamin Pimentel is a MarketWatch reporter based in San Francisco.